How do simulations work?

Before each game, our model plays it out 10,000 times, using each team's strength, the level of its league, recent form and head-to-head history. The percentages you see are how often something happened across those games: 64% means it happened in about 6,400 of the 10,000.

• NFL: win chances, projected points, the game total and the margin, plus players' touchdowns, passing, rushing and receiving yards, and receptions.
• Soccer: the result, goals, both teams to score, corners, cards and shots on target, plus players' goals, assists and shots.

Simulations refresh every morning. Soccer matches are simulated again once the confirmed lineups are announced.

You'll find them on the Simulations tab and in Match Simulations on every game's Overview.